#news #video about how the world didn’t have a huge #oil shock from the #Iran war just now. Proposes a theory that #China’s Xi Jinping averted disaster.
Incorrectly states that 10% of the world oil supply is “more than a tenth of global #energy usage”. Misleading plots with nonzero baselines to exaggerate drawdowns of strategic petroleum reserves. Purportedly China’s oil imports dropped by half (5.5 million barrels per day) between March and June, though given the previous falsehoods I’m not going to trust anything out of this “Max Fisher” bozo until I verify it. Reportedly there’s a Reuters article from March entitled, “China orders immediate ban on March fuel exports, sources say,” about refinery outputs, and a Wall Street Journal article from June, “China is propping up the world economy by importing a lot less oil”. And reportedly China was burning a record amount of coal by April, perhaps shutting down liquid-fueled power plants. Oh, and supposedly China had a 1.4 billion barrel secret strategic oil reserve, larger than the strategic oil reserves of all other countries put together.
Another boner toward the end of the video: “trading in US dollars means those transactions have to be processed by a US-based bank.” No, no it doesn’t.
on 02026-07-18#video by Sal Mercogliano from today about #shipping. Three container ships were seized or fired on by #Iran’s #IRGC as they attempted to pass the Strait of Hormuz, so I guess the IRGC still has some ships left, but one of them made it through. And the #USA is also attacking #oil tankers and container ships in the Strait. But Lloyd’s List says at least 26 “Iranian shadow fleet vessels” have evaded the US blockade.
on 02026-04-22#video on #oil #shipping today by Sal Mercogliano. The #USA normally exports 4 million barrels a day, the Strait of Hormuz normally exports 20 million, and now only 4.5 million are making it across #Saudi, and another 4.5 million are being released from the SPR. The many tankers headed to the US now (60 VLCCs of 2 million barrels each) may not be able to fill up. The USS George W. Bush carrier strike group is going from the US (not the Mediterranean) to the Indian Ocean, not vice versa. And maybe that’s not because of the Houthis.
on 02026-04-15#news: #Korea had been importing 60% of its #oil via the Strait of Hormuz, but due to the #Iran war has been seeking alternatives: “‘[V]isits to four countries have secured the import of 273 million barrels of crude oil by the end of this year,’ Kang Hoon-sik, chief of staff to the president, said (...) sufficient for more than three months of South Korea’s oil needs (...) after he returned from a trip to Kazakhstan, Oman, Saudi Arabia and Qatar.” Which makes no sense for two reasons: the end of the year is eight and a half months off, so this is about 35% of Korea’s oil usage, and Qatar and Oman export their oil via the Strait.
on 02026-04-14archive of <https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-13/two-oil-tankers-attempt-hormuz-exit-after-us-announces-blockade>, explaining that the three tankers that passed the Strait of Hormuz today were before CENTCOM’s announced blockade. #Iran #politics #oil
on 02026-04-13#news #video by Sal Mercogliano about #shipping today in the wake of #Trump’s announced blockade of #Iran. The daily report of the Joint Maritime Information Center (“part of the Combined Maritime Forces under the Fifth Fleet”) says 4 tankers have gone through the Strait of Hormuz in the last 24 hours, 3 on April 11 (perhaps before the Trump blockade). There’s still 800 to 1000 ships in the Persian Gulf. Mercogliano says that right about now is when the tankers from the first of March would have reached Europe, Australia, and America, so this is when the economy starts to feel the #oil shortages outside of Asia; in Asia, the replacement crude from America will arrive at half the flow rate because it takes the finite number of tankers twice as long. Russia and China block the UN Security Council resolution to open the Strait, as Russia’s export revenues surge. The #Saudi Red Sea port of Yanbu can only load 4.5 million barrels per day, even though the pipeline the Saudis just repaired can transfer 7, but even that is much less than the 20 that normally comes through the Persian Gulf.
on 02026-04-12#video #news about demining the Strait of Hormuz by Sal Mercogliano. “Additional [#USA] forces, including underwater #drones, will join the clearance effort in the coming days.” Map overlays showing how #Iran has shifted the shipping lanes into its own territorial waters, and animation of the last 24 hours of #oil ships using Iran’s new #shipping lanes, using AIS data from MarineTraffic. Two US destroyers have arrived at the Strait, and one turned on its AIS (automated identification system) after passing through to show that it had done so.
on 02026-04-11“[Luxor’s Hashrate Index] estimates that only 8 to 10 percent of global #Bitcoin computing power is located in electricity markets linked to crude prices, mainly in Gulf countries such as the UAE and Oman. (...) with smaller contributions from Iran, Kuwait, Qatar and Libya.” #oil #pricing #energy #cryptocurrencies
on 02026-04-11spot #oil #pricing is over US$130 a barrel even as the futures market dips below US$100 this week, the biggest divergence in 20 years. #finance “Prices have soared around the world. And some countries in Asia — which depends heavily on fuel from the Persian Gulf — have even faced shortages. Gas stations in Vietnam and Thailand turned away customers, saying they had no fuel; Sri Lanka declared every Wednesday a public holiday; and many other countries have mandated or encouraged remote work.” #Iran
on 02026-04-10interesting comment about commodity markets #finance, saying that the spot #oil price is wildly unmoored from futures prices. Misuses “front-running”, though, and incorrectly thinks the SEC regulates #USA commodities markets, so perhaps a beginner.
on 02026-04-08archive of <https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2026/01/04/an-american-oil-empire-is-a-deeply-flawed-idea> on the flaws in #Trump’s plans to take #Venezuela’s #oil for the #USA. #politics
on 02026-01-11Press-conference #news #video on #Mexico’s #energy plan for 02024–02030, saying they had to rescue #PEMEX after the failure of the “neoliberal period” as a product of the privatization of 02013, after which it supposedly became the world’s most indebted #oil company; apparently López Obrador rescued it in 02018, but apparently they didn’t renationalize it until #Sheinbaum did so 15 days ago? Currently producing 1833 thousand barrels per day, almost unchanged since 02019 (3400ℓ/s; at 37MJ/ℓ that’d be about 125GW), and 3754 million cubic feet of #gas per day (1.23Mℓ/s; at 37kJ/ℓ that’s 46GW). Interestingly they give lip service to promoting the energy transition, but the press conference is all about increasing fossil-fuel production and use.
on 02024-11-27#PDF slides from #CREA (the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, which seems like it ought to be “CRECA”), entitled “#China #energy and emissions trends: August 2024 snapshot”, showing a rise in #coal imports to an all-time high of 500 million tonnes per year! And a rise in total coal use to about 5100 million tonnes per year (at ≈25MJ/kg, that’s 4TW), plus 780 million tonnes a year of crude #oil (1.0TW) and 410 billion cubic meters of gas per year (490GW at 37.8kJ/ℓ), for a fossil total of 5.5TW. There’s a plot of “oil products” but I’m not sure counting that wouldn’t be double-counting. Also plots by-month #solar energy production by month going back to 02018, showing an all-time high of 40 TWh in June 02024 (55GW), which is a pretty low capacity factor given the November stat of 790GW installed from the NEA reports. If we project 790GW backward at a 3.3% monthly growth rate from November to June, 5 months, we predict 672GW installed as of June, of which 55GW would be only an 8% capacity factor. And that’s in the peak month! Not even year-round! So the 54GW they added of fossil-fuel power over the last 12 months is probably still more than the 256GW of solar after adjusting for capacity factors. The slide on p. 7 showing a bargraph of solar capacity added in the first half of each year since 02010 is pretty staggering. It seems to show that the high #pricing for #photovoltaic modules in the 02018-02022 period suppressed demand rather badly in China itself, not just abroad, though that pricing isn’t mentioned.
on 02024-11-27#Saudi is getting out of the #oil business “and transitioning to being primarily an investor.”
on 02016-05-04In 2014, by contrast, #Juan-Cole suggested high Saudi #oil #energy production would weaken the recognized government of #Iraq, providing opportunities to #Daesh. He also predicts, “By 2016, solar and wind will be grid parity everywhere in the US with coal and natural gas for heating and cooling buildings.” #predictions
on 02016-05-04Saudi Arabia maintains high #oil #energy production possibly in order to squeeze #Daesh revenues.
on 02016-05-04supposedly the new #oil #taxes in #Russia represent the beginning of the end of Russia as a great power. Forgive me if I’m not that convinced. #politics
on 02016-04-20#oil #energy prices will probably stay low for a few years (probably until photovoltaic dominates)
on 02015-12-14Tracy Alloway tried small-scale commodities trading, buying a physical barrel of crude #oil. She ended up settling for a bottle, and says it’s worth approximately 24¢ on the spot market. She named it Williston.
on 02015-12-01#Obama rejects #Keystone-XL #oil #energy pipeline to save the #environment. The Republicans are all in favor.
on 02015-11-06Tom Murphy dooming about #collapse as of 2012 because #energy. Specifically he’s worried that an #oil crunch “within the decade” will make #transportation very expensive, which will cause the #economy to collapse, and then we won’t be able to make #photovoltaic solutions. This is causing him a motivational crisis because he worries that his scientific work will be lost in the collapse.
on 02015-08-15End of the #petrodollar. #Saudi wanted to crush #Putin? #politics #energy #forex Lots of graphs and data tables on #oil prices
on 02015-08-05