#Argentina #economics #predictions
on 02024-10-18#solar #energy #predictions: “The global [#photovoltaic] cumulative capacity grew to 1.6 TW in 2023, up from 1.2 TW in 2022, with from 407.3 GW to 446 GW[1] of new PV systems commissioned – and [on] the order of an estimated 150 GW of modules in inventories across the world. After several years of tension on material and transport costs, module prices plummeted in a massively over-supplied market, maintaining the competitivity of PV even as electricity prices decreased after historical peaks in 2022.”
on 02024-06-18660 gigawatts of #solar #photovoltaic #energy installations expected in 02024 (dateline February 26) according to BloombergNEF’s “1Q 2024 Global PV Market Outlook”. #predictions “around 2,437,500 metric tonnes of polysilicon will be produced in 2024.” “Chinese producers will sell their polysilicon at US$6-7 per kilogram this year, while non-Chinese companies will sell at around US$22 per kilogram in early 2024.”
on 02024-06-18#futurism and incompetence in #predictions
on 02022-09-16review of J. Storrs “Utility Fog” Hall’s “Where is my Flying Car?” #futurism #predictions
on 02021-01-21Most hyped technologies just fail; #predictions are hard
on 02017-08-06#USA #photovoltaic #energy #predictions: Morgan Stanley says, ‘“by 2020, renewables will be the cheapest form of new-power generation across the globe,” with the exception of a few countries in Southeast Asia.’ Also, ‘the price of #solar panels has fallen 50% between 2016 and 2017.’
on 02017-08-06#Bitcoin #predictions from a financial trader who just bought his first Bitcoin. “I used Coinbase, which from what I gather is the “safe” way to buy, sell and store.”
on 02017-07-29#predictions: cars will mostly go away?
on 02017-07-23mathematical models of how #inequality and other factors could #collapse civilization. #predictions
on 02017-05-02Forbes on #predictions: “Capitalism has generated massive wealth for some, but it’s devastated the planet and has failed to improve human well-being at scale.”
on 02017-04-15"The Great Explosion", #predictions #fiction with the Gands and the Antigands and the dopes and the clever people and the gnoits, exploring possible societal structures
on 02017-02-24blogpost claiming #Github will upend the software social landscape because everyone will work in public and therefore the advantage of being from a privileged country will evaporate. Within 24 months. Apparently written by a recruiter-who-programs in Queensland. #predictions
on 02017-02-23More #solar #photovoltaic #energy #predictions. The Powerwall sold out, selling a billion dollars’ worth of batteries in a year or so.
on 02016-10-07Still more about the #solar #photovoltaic #energy project in Abu Dhabi, #UAE. Lots of #predictions.
on 02016-10-07“Don’t Replace People. Augment Them.” Tim O’Reilly asks, “What might we be astonished by if we have the courage to invest in the possibilities of a better future?” #predictions #automation
on 02016-07-24Jon Watkins’s #predictions from 1900 of what life would be like in the year 2000.
on 02016-06-01In 2014, by contrast, #Juan-Cole suggested high Saudi #oil #energy production would weaken the recognized government of #Iraq, providing opportunities to #Daesh. He also predicts, “By 2016, solar and wind will be grid parity everywhere in the US with coal and natural gas for heating and cooling buildings.” #predictions
on 02016-05-04Isaac Newton’s calculations that the world will end in 2060. Isaac Newton #handwriting! #predictions
on 02016-04-16Mike Hearn, developer of Tor and #Bitcoin, is giving up on Bitcoin because the Bitcoin XT fork doesn’t seem to be taking off, in part because connectivity between China (where most of the miners are) and the rest of the world is spotty, so the block size won’t grow, which he feels will make the Bitcoin network unreliable and expensive. Mostly he blames the censorship of theymos (Michael Marquardt), who moderates /r/bitcoin and bitcoin.it but not /r/btc, bitco.in, or forum.bitcoin.com, and also gmaxwell, a bit. He doesn’t mention sidechains and barely mentions using it for settlement between larger entities like Coinbase. He also attacks Peter Todd’s “Replace By Fee” proposal, which is intended to make transaction clearing reliably prompt despite unpredictable transaction fees, because apparently it enables you to update a transaction you’ve already sent to point back to you. #predictions
on 02016-01-14Charlie Stross posits that automation disempowers labor (following Marx, though maybe he doesn’t know that) and that the consequently rising power of capitalism will destroy democracy through the “financialization of government services” and the expansion of the security state. #predictions
on 02015-11-16Tom Murphy’s #predictions blog, mostly about #energy. He’s pretty pessimistic.
on 02015-11-16Archdruid John Michael Greer declares an end to the space age. #predictions
on 02015-11-16slouching toward utopia, I think by Venkatesh Rao. #predictions
on 02015-11-16#visualization of #time-series #quantiles (on #space-travel #predictions)
on 02015-08-12John Michael Greer, #predictions guy and Archdruid, is pessimistic about the survival of the #internet post-#collapse. Lots of comments by #survivalists.
on 02015-08-10Hugh Hancock on our storytelling history and media, and in particular fanfic and how our myths are “locked up in gilded cages” #predictions
on 02015-08-05the Navajo Generating Station #predictions #energy
on 02015-08-05“all fictions — and fictions may be all we have — are retreats from reality rather than approaches to it” #games #predictions #sociology #philosophy
on 02015-08-05#collapse #singulitarian #predictions
on 02015-08-05