#China #climate-change #solar #energy #CREA
on 02024-11-28latest #CREA #PDF slides on #China: “China #energy and emissions trends: November 2024 snapshot”. Astonishing: “Total power generation increased by 6.6%, while large-scale power generation grew by 2.1%, indicating most power generation growth comes from #solar and #wind installations that are outside of the industrial production statistics. (...) National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) underreports wind and solar generation, particularly from rooftop and smaller solar plants.” I think those figures are year-over-year rather than month-over-month because, on the same slide, they say, “solar power generation saw an increase of 46.2%.” Carbon emissions are said to have peaked in February 02024 despite #coal electric power generation growing 2.2% (in what I assume is year over year). Astoundingly: “After H1 2024 saw no new permits issued for coal-based steel plants, China issued a policy in August suspending all new #steel plant permits.” (Are they going to import their steel from India, or what?)
on 02024-11-27#CREA’s #China category. #energy
on 02024-11-27#PDF slides from #CREA (the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, which seems like it ought to be “CRECA”), entitled “#China #energy and emissions trends: August 2024 snapshot”, showing a rise in #coal imports to an all-time high of 500 million tonnes per year! And a rise in total coal use to about 5100 million tonnes per year (at ≈25MJ/kg, that’s 4TW), plus 780 million tonnes a year of crude #oil (1.0TW) and 410 billion cubic meters of gas per year (490GW at 37.8kJ/ℓ), for a fossil total of 5.5TW. There’s a plot of “oil products” but I’m not sure counting that wouldn’t be double-counting. Also plots by-month #solar energy production by month going back to 02018, showing an all-time high of 40 TWh in June 02024 (55GW), which is a pretty low capacity factor given the November stat of 790GW installed from the NEA reports. If we project 790GW backward at a 3.3% monthly growth rate from November to June, 5 months, we predict 672GW installed as of June, of which 55GW would be only an 8% capacity factor. And that’s in the peak month! Not even year-round! So the 54GW they added of fossil-fuel power over the last 12 months is probably still more than the 256GW of solar after adjusting for capacity factors. The slide on p. 7 showing a bargraph of solar capacity added in the first half of each year since 02010 is pretty staggering. It seems to show that the high #pricing for #photovoltaic modules in the 02018-02022 period suppressed demand rather badly in China itself, not just abroad, though that pricing isn’t mentioned.
on 02024-11-27