“Press Release: U.S. Soldier Charged With Using Classified Information To Profit From Prediction Market Bets” #DOJ #Gannon #USA #prediction-markets #politics
on 02026-04-23#CFTC civil and criminal complaint about #Gannon #gambling on #Polymarket on #Maduro. #PDF. #USA #prediction-markets #politics
on 02026-04-23#CFTC civil and criminal complaint about #Gannon #gambling on #Polymarket on #Maduro. #USA #prediction-markets #politics
on 02026-04-23#gambling allegedly won Master Sgt. #Gannon Ken Van Dyke US$400k for leaking the raid on #Venezuela to kidnap Nicolas #Maduro, but he's been arrested and an indictment was unsealed today. “The Commodity Futures Trading Commission [#CFTC] filed a related complaint against Van Dyke on Thursday, seeking restitution, disgorgement and civil monetary penalties.” #Polymarket’s stance has changed from “super cool (...) creates this financial incentive for people to go and divulge the information to the market” in November to “When we identified a user trading on classified government information, we referred the matter to the DOJ & cooperated with their investigation. Insider trading has no place on Polymarket. Today’s arrest is proof the system works.” #prediction-markets #news #USA #politics
on 02026-04-23#news #humor #video of #John-Oliver explaining #prediction-markets, specifically #Kalshi and #Polymarket
on 02026-04-20#Polymarket #prediction-markets bet heavily on the #Iran ceasefire, suggesting “insider trading”: “An analysis of publicly available blockchain data from Polymarket, using the crypto analytics platform Dune, shows that at least 50 accounts, or wallets, placed substantial yes on bets Tuesday before Trump announced the ceasefire in a Truth Social post at about 6.30pm ET. These were the first bets made by these particular wallets.” #finance
on 02026-04-08#Vitalik speculates on how to get #prediction-markets out of the “dopamine value” rut that #Polymarket and #Kalshi have apparently fallen into, because he thinks that even if separating fools from their money is profitable, it probably isn’t profitable enough, so we should try for hedging. And Matt Yglesias suggests capping sports betting percentages.
on 02026-03-17#prediction-markets #news from this week, including a lot of #Polymarket cheating. “When I started this column in 2021, I dreamed of a time when there would be big legal prediction markets on important topics. That’s come true. There have been some small benefits, but not the epistemic wonderland I hoped for.” #toread
on 02026-01-15#Polymarket #prediction-markets leaked the #USA kidnapping of #Maduro (president of #Venezuela) hours before it happened. #news #history
on 02026-01-15#prediction-markets on Scott Alexander’s 2017 forecasts
on 02017-03-11Robin Hanson explains why he’s spent his life promoting #prediction-markets and #economics and why he’s now deciding to crusade against prestige itself.
on 02016-06-30Another #trading #algorithms #paper by the same authors as the 2011 paper: “Efficient market making via convex optimization, and a connection to online learning (2012)”. Talks about Arrow-Debreu #prediction-markets as a market-based probability estimator and draws a connection to online #machine-learning algorithms, and briefly links to computational #complexity results. The reason the authors are interested in automated market-making seems to be that it is needed to make #prediction markets over complex outcome spaces feasibly liquid.
on 02015-08-13